New York Rangers 2023-24 season preview: Playoff chances, projected points, roster rankings

By Shayna Goldman, Sean Gentille and Dom Luszczyszyn

It was a relatively uncharacteristic offseason in New York. The Rangers didn’t go big or bold with the roster, sticking to low-risk signings. The most significant change came behind the bench after the two-year Gerard Gallant Era.

They may not have made as big of a splash as expected after a disappointing first-round exit, but they made a lot of savvy moves around the margins fixing the team’s depth. That’s usually a source of weakness for this team. Now, it’s a strength that has the Rangers primed to go further. Better yet, New York looks like a true contender.

Advertisement

Igor Shesterkin is still the team’s backbone, but the Rangers no longer look like a bunch of guys getting dragged into the playoffs by elite goaltending alone. They’ve done pretty well with that strategy to date, but a more balanced approach could be the difference between being an ordinary playoff team or being one of the teams to beat.

The projection

After the 2022 playoffs, it felt like the hype around the Rangers was a bit much, and they proved as much with a one-and-done playoffs the following year. Now? It feels like the team is being slept on.

Last year didn’t go as planned, but there’s no shame in losing to an upstart Devils team — rivalry aside. New York had an underrated offseason that arguably gave the Rangers their strongest version of the club in this new era of contention.

That may be hard to believe with some of the older members of the core starting to decline, but there’s still potential for a young supporting cast to pick up the slack. That, and the Rangers have a huge advantage with one of the best defensemen and goaltenders in the world.

The end result is a team that nets 105 points on average and makes the playoffs with ease. After that, it’s anyone’s guess. The Metropolitan Division is a gauntlet, especially at the top, but the Rangers are on the right track for home-ice advantage in the first round. That’s a small edge that could get them where they need to go this season: past the first round, and maybe beyond.

Percentiles with the bar graphs are based on each player’s Offensive, Defensive and Net Rating relative to their time-on-ice slot, i.e., the first forward is compared to other first forwards only.

The strengths

Over much of the last two decades, the Rangers have had a clear signature: Their greatest strength is back in goal.

Igor Shesterkin has emerged as one of the best goaltenders in the world over the last couple of years. His 2021-22 was absolutely game-changing and realistically, that wasn’t something he was expected to keep up last year. But even after a slight regression, the netminder remained elite. In 58 games played, he saved 27.8 goals above expected to stay in the top five in the league. Shesterkin remained one of the most important players in New York, as he gave his team a chance to win with 37 quality starts and 10 stolen wins.

Advertisement

The Rangers should expect more of the same from their starting goalie. Shesterkin showed he was highly capable before coming to North America, then transitioned to a lowly AHL team and thrived immediately. He continued to crush it behind a disastrous Rangers roster when he was promoted to the NHL, and hasn’t stopped being their best player since. He boasts a plus-17 Net Ranking going into the year — a number that comes in behind only Ilya Sorokin and Juuse Saros.

In front of the goal crease, the Rangers’ next best strength comes on the blue line from another Trophy-caliber skater. Adam Fox is a massive difference-maker. He’s one of the best all-around defensemen in the league, which landed him second in the Norris race this past season. His Net Rating of plus-19.6 was exactly on par with his pace in 2020-21, the year he won.

Fox isn’t the most physical defenseman, or the biggest. But he beats opponents with his vision, anticipation and poise. With his puck-moving abilities, he has a strong impact on the Rangers’ offense; at five-on-five, he had the best influence on their expected goal generation relative to his teammates. His efforts extend back to his own zone, even against top competition and in high-leverage situations. Fox can be counted on to stop incoming opponents, and quickly shift back to offense in all situations. That’s what makes him a threat every time he’s on the ice, and raises his value to a plus-20 Net Rating that trails only Cale Makar.

Fox is the driver of his pair, but he’s complemented so well by Ryan Lindgren, who has been Fox’s mainstay partner for much of his NHL career. Lindgren has evolved from where he started as an old-school, traditional defender to really keep up with his dynamic partner. He’s the less offensive of the two, but has picked up that side of his game from years past. Lindgren’s biggest strength is his defense, and that plus-five rating matches his partner’s. In about 900 minutes of five-on-five ice time of Fox and Lindgren, the Rangers have generated almost 56 percent of the expected goals share, with even better results to match. So to have someone of his caliber as a No. 4, based on ice time, is a win for New York.

The Rangers have upgraded some of their defensive depth behind those two with free-agent signing Erik Gustafsson. The 31-year-old is coming off of one of his best seasons. He was tasked with stepping up in Washington after John Carlson was sidelined with an injury and ran with his opportunity. After thriving with the Capitals and Peter Laviolette, it won’t be a surprise if Gustafsson ends preseason with the sixth and final roster spot on defense.

Advertisement

His ability to break out of his own zone should click with Braden Schneider, who has had a solid start to his NHL career but could use some more support on his pairing. And it should give the Rangers three reliable pairs who can bring the puck out of their own end with control. The Rangers have had a rotating cast of sub-replacement defenders occupying the third pair over the last few seasons that have made them vulnerable. Gustafsson should solve that problem in a big way as one of the best third-pairing options in the league.

That depth on defense helps boost the Rangers’ ratings on both ends of the ice. Their plus-11 Defensive Rating is the standout that ranks third in the league, as is their overall plus-19 Net Rating. It’s a major upgrade from where this team stood last year and should give Shesterkin the most support he’s had at the NHL level so far.

The Rangers’ two-way strengths extend to their forward group, including first-line center Mika Zibanejad.

Zibanejad is a pivotal part of the Rangers’ all-situation play. He can be trusted at all strengths and at any point in a game and tends to match up against top competition. The defensive strengths are there, but his offense isn’t quite of No. 1 forward caliber. But that’s going to be an area to watch this year, since there seems to be the potential for that to rise.

The 30-year-old hasn’t been as impactful offensively at five-on-five below the surface the last couple of years. The question is whether that’s due to individual decline, or whether it’s coaching related — especially because the last two bench bosses haven’t been super tactically driven in New York. Add in the fact that the team probably stops galaxy-braining Zibanejad’s usage on the power play, and there’s a very good chance that one of the team’s best dual threats on offense can match or exceed last year’s 39-goal and 91-point season. That’s what could take his Net Rating from average to higher-end.

Chris Kreider measures up better as the team’s No. 3 forward. He’s an ideal complementary winger in a top six who has rounded out his defensive game in recent years. Kreider is more of a shooter than a passer, and brings more than just a knack for tips and deflections in the net-front area. He has the speed and strength to drive down the wing and generate a scoring chance, too. Kreider’s 52-goal season in 2021-22 wasn’t something that could easily be replicated; it seems like an outlier peak year. But last year’s 36 are a lot more attainable and repeatable, especially if he converts more on his power-play chances. He’s projected for 42 goals this season.

The same five-on-five questions that apply to Zibanejad also apply to Artemi Panarin. His defensive metrics improved after sinking in 2021-22, but the offense isn’t as overwhelming as it could be. Maybe, like Zibanejad, it’s just a sign of age-related decline starting to hit him. Or maybe it’s as simple as his environment, between coaching and linemates.

Advertisement

Panarin is still a premier passer and puck-mover in this league, one of the best at setting up chances and attacking off the rush. He’s an elite threat with the puck in a way the model may not give perfect credit for. Still, even with some hiccups the last couple of seasons, and disappointing playoff appearances, he remains an above-average offensive threat as a No. 2 forward. But the pressure is on for him to show that he still has some game-changing ability left to give in New York.

Behind Zibanejad, the Rangers have two solid options at center. Trocheck’s game isn’t super flashy or pretty, but he’s effective down the middle. Filip Chytil has a little more offensive pop but hasn’t had the chance to really show that he’s truly second-line caliber. Either way, they provide positive value and strong support wherever they slot. That helps solidify an area that was a weakness for the team in recent years.

The weaknesses

Kaapo Kakko technically stacks up to a team’s No. 7 forward and does fit the role well. But the Rangers have higher aspirations for the former No. 2 pick. He had some success last year on the top line with Kreider and Zibanejad, as the trio rocked a 59 percent expected goals rate in about 229 five-on-five minutes. But he’s not a slam-dunk high-end supporting player just yet, and he certainly hasn’t reached the impact status that was expected of him back when he was drafted.

The same is true for Alexis Lafrenière, who has a chance to play top-six minutes if he can shift to the right. But even as it stands, if he remains at left wing on the third line, the team could use more from him.

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

Rangers' big question: Can Kakko and Lafrenière finally step up to provide high-end support?

If Kakko or Lafrenière can’t shake it in the top six consistently, it’ll mean more minutes for Blake Wheeler. That’s not ideal, and it’s a further reason why the development of the team’s former top two picks is so crucial for this season.

Wheeler has the potential to be a low-risk, high-reward signing considering his cost-effective $800,000 cap hit (plus performance bonuses). There’s bounce-back potential outside of Winnipeg, but even at his best at this point in his career, he’s probably middle-six on a playoff-caliber team, and not top-line material. Defensively he gives a lot back, which is what makes his role so important — he needs to be sheltered and supported.

Where the Rangers are still really underwhelming is at the bottom of the lineup. They may have fixed that on defense, but it’s still a big problem up front.  Barclay Goodrow’s contract hasn’t been worth the cost of admission, and Nick Bonino’s offense really dried up in San Jose. It’s possible that a change of scenery helps, but at least he brings defensive strengths to that fourth line.

Jimmy Vesey could be the one bright spot, again, if last year wasn’t a fluke. He had a Net Rating of minus-one thanks to the positive impact on both ends of the ice serving as a utility forward. But his track record isn’t strong enough to expect a repeat. If someone like Brennan Othmann does make the team, after impressing throughout training camp and preseason, it could add a spark to the bottom six, though.

Advertisement

Another player who should be able to outperform their projection is K’Andre Miller. The 23-year-old looks primed for a breakout; it’s just not fair to pencil it in yet. Right now he’s closer to an ideal No. 3 defenseman rather than a No. 2 — though it’s clear the potential is there. The lefty’s power skating, reach, and ability to break the puck out of his own zone are standouts in his game. If last year’s offensive flair is a sign of what’s to come, he should take strides again this season.

It’s worth noting though that Miller’s puck skills don’t stand out as anything special according to Corey Sznajder’s tracking data. He may look the part in flashes, but the overall results aren’t there. That’s true of his on-ice results as well where the Rangers are just below break-even in Miller’s minutes, though it’s not clear how much of that’s on him versus his partner. Miller and Jacob Trouba were one of the most consistent pairings again last year, with over 1,118 five-on-five minutes together.

Even when isolating Trouba from his hefty cap hit, there are some gaps in his game that hold back that second pairing. There’s some risk to how he retrieves pucks, and he doesn’t exit with control very often. But even more troublesome is how he defends the blue line, and how many scoring chances get past him in transition.

Last, but not least, is the presence of Jonathan Quick. His game fell off immensely last season and his presence doesn’t leave a lot of insurance for the team’s most important player. New York’s defense should insulate him better, but he’s still a huge risk.

The wild card

Can Artemi Panarin return to form as the star the Rangers need up front?

One of the more out-of-the-ordinary elements to the Rangers’ rise up these projections is that they’ve done it despite some, uh, ordinary play at five-on-five. The closest thing they’ve got to an elite producer there is Panarin, who’s hung around the top 20 in five-on-five points over the last three years but has still slipped drastically from his peak in 2019-20. In that pandemic-shortened season, Panarin led the NHL with 59 five-on-five points and finished second to Evgeni Malkin among full-time players in five-on-five points/60 with 3.29.

After that, Panarin started a year-over-year decline; 3.04 points/60, then 2.53, then 2.45 last season (33rd among players with at least 500 minutes). His place in The Athletic’s NHL Player Tiers has slid, too; ahead of the 2020-21 season, he was MVP-caliber in Tier 1. Now, he’s at the top of the All-Star group in Tier 3A. “Panarin I don’t think is the five-on-five player he once was and that’s awfully high for someone who isn’t a five-on-five guy,” one executive told us.

The biggest thing Panarin has going against him is age; at 31, most players’ offensive peak is behind them. It’s also worth noting, of course, that Panarin is still really, really good. But the last few years weren’t an instance of crummy luck, nor can they solely be attributed to his linemates; he put up more than 3 points/60 playing primarily with Jesper Fast and Ryan Strome, after all

Advertisement

He seems set to skate with Filip Chytil and Blake Wheeler at the start of the regular season. The fit could be worse: Chytil has some goal-scoring ability, and Wheeler is still a decent set-up man on the right wing. If Panarin doesn’t reverse the downward trend in his ability to create quality chances, though, it’s tough to predict that his production will improve. What’s certain is that the Rangers need more five-on-five points from somewhere, and it starts with him.

The best case

The Rangers thrive in front of their elite goaltender. More adaptable coaching is a game-changer at five-on-five and helps Panarin get back to his heights. Zibanejad and Kreider remain reliable scoring threats. Miller emerges as a true No. 2 defenseman, while Kakko and Lafrenière provide a boost in the top six. The team makes a deep run to the Stanley Cup Final.

The worst case

A coaching change isn’t the answer. Zibanejad and Panarin’s five-on-five play declines and the kids aren’t nearly ready to step up. Wheeler can’t rebound in New York and Gustafsson turns into a pumpkin. Shesterkin can’t do it all and this team suffers another disappointing Round 1 loss.

The bottom line

For all the words typed and spoken ahead of an NHL season, trying to accurately guess how the next eight months unfold, goaltending remains a cheat code, and the Rangers have one who’s more than capable of strapping them to his back and winning a series. Or two. Or three.

What the Rangers have done right beyond simply telling Shesterkin to skate out there and do his thing, though, is what makes them a true contender. Fox is a superstar. The forwards are good enough. The weaknesses, in general, are tougher to find — and in the event they become a little more clear, they’ve got someone at the sport’s most important position who can act as the eraser.

References

How these projections work

Understanding projection uncertainty 

Resources

Evolving Hockey

Advertisement

Natural Stat Trick

Hockey Reference

NHL

All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder

Read the other 2023-24 season previews here.

(Top photo of Chris Kreider, Ryan Lindgren and Mika Zibanejad: Brad Penner / USA Today)

ncG1vNJzZmismJqutbTLnquim16YvK57k3Jpb2pga3xzfJFsZmpoX2WBcLrEsGSyp6KgerOtzaCcq6tdqLKiv86nZKmqlau2psOMa2dra11ngXA%3D